Original-Research: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd - von Sphene Capital GmbH
Einstufung von Sphene Capital GmbH zu Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Unternehmen: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd ISIN: AU000000CUV3
Anlass der Studie: Update Report Empfehlung: Buy seit: 01.03.2019 Kursziel: AUD 58,40 (bislang AUD 32,70) Kursziel auf Sicht von: 24 Monate Letzte Ratingänderung: - Analyst: Peter Hasler
There is so much more than the FDA approval
Clinuvel reported its H1/2018/19 report (30/06) this week. Revenues (AUD 9.0 million, +27.0% YoY) came in below our expectations despite positive currency effects. Since total expenses (AUD 5.7 million) were below last year's level mainly due to lower costs from general operations, operating profit almost tripled to AUD 3.3 million from AUD 1.2 million in H1/2017/18, and EBIT margin more than doubled to 36.7% from 16.7%. During the following months we expect a steady positive news flow from Clinuvel. Following the strong outperformance of the shares since initiation of our research coverage (+197.6% vs. ASX 200 +1.1% and DAX -13.8%), we have adjusted our valuation methodology. Contrary to our previous method, we have now included additional medical indications, even with the lowest possible penetration rates. We therefore consider our valuation a worstcase scenario. Notwithstanding our rather conservative approach, we calculate a base-case scenario equity value of AUD 2,788.7 million or AUD 58.40 (previous AUD 32.70) per share; a Monte Carlo simulation calculates bear and bull case scenario equity values of AUD 84.80 and AUD 32.10 per share, respectively. In light of an expected 24 months price potential of 126.9%, we reiterate our buy rating for the shares of Clinuvel.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/17623.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA +49 (89) 74443558/ +49 (152) 31764553 peter-thilo.hasler@sphene-capital.de
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